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☆ Turkey's inflation climbs to 68.5% despite continued rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cagla Gurdogan | ReutersTurkey's annual inflation rose to 68.5% for the month of March, an increase on February's 67.1% inflation read, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's report released Wednesday. Turkey has launched a concerted effort to tackle soaring inflation with interest rate hikes, most recently raising the country's key rate from 45% to 50% in late March. watch nowMuch of the inflation in recent months stems from a significant increase to the minimum wage that Turkey's government mandated for 2024. Economists expect further rate hikes from the central bank will be necessary. Turkey's central bank implemented eight consecutive interest rate hikes from June 2023 to January 2024, totaling a cumulative 3,650 basis points.

Persons: Cagla Gurdogan, Nicholas Farr, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Umit Bektas Organizations: Reuters, Economics, Istanbul Mayor, Republican People's Party Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Europe, London, Istanbul Metropolitan, Istanbul

☆ Analysis: Israel's judicial reform turmoil threatens economic growth, investment
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Nir Elias/Illustration//File PhotoLONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - Israel's economy may face ratings downgrades, falling foreign investment and a weaker tech sector if turmoil arising from the government's contentious judicial reforms continues, investors and analysts warn. Reuters GraphicsMaplecroft's Kinnear said comparatively low inflation versus similar countries had buoyed investment, but more civil unrest could derail incoming cash. The reform backlash "threatens to push the economy onto a permanently lower growth path," Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist with Capital Economics wrote in a note. Moody's cut Israel's sovereign credit to a "dislike" stance, while S&P said on Thursday the unprecedented protests would lower economic growth this year. S&P warned in May that it could lower its AA- Israel rating "if regional or domestic political risks escalated sharply, depressing Israel's economic, fiscal, and balance-of-payments metrics."

Persons: Nir Elias, Benjamin, Hamish Kinnear, Reuters Graphics Maplecroft's Kinnear, Morgan Stanley, Roger Mark, Mark, Kinnear, Nicholas Farr, Moody's, Fitch, Natalia Gurushina, VanEck, Libby George, Marc Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Middle East, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Copley Fund Research, Reuters Graphics, Gross, TECH, Israeli Innovation Authority, Capital Economics, P, Fitch, AA, Thomson Locations: Israel, North Africa, Europe

It was a paid ad by a group of high-tech companies protesting against Netanyahu's judicial policies, which analysts say have unleashed a slew of risks, both for Israel's economy and for his own political future. Israel's shekel moved on every twist and turn in parliament as efforts to reach a judicial compromise intensified and finally crashed. For now, Israel's economy is relatively robust, with growth forecast at 3% this year and unemployment at a 3.5% rate. Even if Netanyahu chooses to scrap plans for further judicial changes, damage will be hard to fix. The tech sector has a lot to lose if more controversial judicial changes come because firms need a trusted legal system to protect their intellectual property.

Persons: Netanyahu, Moody's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's shekel, Morgan Stanley, Itzchak Raz, Netanyahu's, They're, Raz, Avi Hasson, Nicholas Farr, Amir Yaron, Amotz Asa, Asa, Shalom Hartman, Maayan Lubell, William Maclean Organizations: Government, Hebrew University, Israel Innovation Authority, Nation Central, Capital Economics, Analysts, Bank, Thomson Locations: JERUSALEM, Israel, Jerusalem

☆ Poland wants to boost its minimum wage by 20% — and it's got economists worried
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Polish government has proposed an increase to national minimum of around 20% in 2024, a move economists believe will keep inflation higher for longer. Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty ImagesPoland's government has proposed a record rise in the national minimum wage of more than 23%, a move economists are worried will exacerbate double-digit inflation. In an interview with state-controlled news agency PAP last month, Polish Family and Social Policy Minister Marlena Malag said the minimum wage increase was designed to help people cope with the increased cost of living. Consumer price inflation in Poland eased in May, but still increased 13% year-on-year. He highlighted that given a "notable increase" in the number of workers that receive minimum wage in Poland in recent years, the impact of the latest increase is likely to be "meaningful."

Persons: Jan Woitas, —, Donald Tusk, Marlena Malag, Adam Glapinski, Rafal Benecki, Benecki, Nicholas Farr Organizations: Justice, Getty Images, Coalition, European, Social, National Bank of Poland, Monetary, ING Poland, Capital Economics Locations: WARSAW, Poland, Warsaw, Central, Eastern Europe, Polish, Europe

☆ New sanctions starting to bite Russia's economy as Moscow admits deficit impact
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a news conference after a meeting of the State Council on youth policy in Moscow, Russia, December 22, 2022. The latest round of Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are beginning to pinch the country's economy. However, Moscow should be able to finance the shortfall through domestic bond issuance and its rainy day fund, officials have suggested. The 27 countries of the EU also agreed in June to ban the purchase of Russian crude oil from Dec. 5. "High-frequency data show that Russian oil exports have fallen since the sanctions were introduced and the spread between Brent crude oil prices over Urals oil prices widened to a six-month high [last] week."

Inflation expectations are de-anchoring from central bank targets, UniCredit CEE Chief Economist Dan Bucsa said. The situation is less clear in Poland though credit holidays to ease the burden of higher central bank interest rates are remaining heading into 2023. In western Europe, economists and financial markets largely expect price growth in the euro area to fall back to the European Central Bank's 2% target by 2024. "The upcoming general election is likely to stimulate fiscal expansion and, notably, the planned significant increase to the minimum wage from January may indeed spark a more substantial wage growth across the board." According to a Czech central bank survey, companies expect year-on-year inflation to be at 10.3% in one year and at 7.5% in three years, well above the central bank's 2% target.

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